Virginia Wage Floor
Va. Code § 40.1-28.10 · as amended 2026 (HB 1 / SB 1)
In effect today
$12.77
per hour since January 1, 2026
Next increase
$13.75
January 1, 2027
First indexed rate (2029)
$15.35
Estimate · set by DOLI by October 1, 2028
Projected 2070 rate
$38.97
Base scenario · $81,058 a year full-time
Data updated October 19, 2026
CPI-U through September 2026
Inflation outlook: SPF Q3 2026
Tracker
The rate, step by step
May 1, 2021$9.502020 Act, first step
Jan 1, 2022$11.002020 Act
Jan 1, 2023$12.002020 Act
Jan 1, 2025$12.41CPI +3.4% (2023)
Jan 1, 2026$12.77CPI +2.9% (2024)
Jan 1, 2027$13.752026 Act (HB 1 / SB 1)
Jan 1, 2028$15.002026 Act (HB 1 / SB 1)
Jan 1, 2029$15.35CPI 2027Forecast
Virginia law requires employers to pay the greater of the state rate or the federal minimum ($7.25 since 2009). The 2026 legislation, signed in April 2026, fixed the 2027 and 2028 steps in statute. Annual inflation indexing starts in 2029.
The 2029 mechanism
How Virginia will set the 2029 wage
§ 40.1-28.10(F), summarized with key phrases quoted “By October 1, 2028, and annually thereafter, the Commissioner shall establish the adjusted state hourly minimum wage” for the 12 months starting the following January 1. The new rate is the current rate plus the percentage by which the U.S. city average CPI-U “has increased during the most recent calendar year for which such information is available.” Each adjustment cannot be less than zero.
Wage2029 = $15.00 × (1 + CPI-U change, Dec 2026 → Dec 2027)
Today’s estimate: $15.00 × (1 + 2.3%) = $15.35
Today’s estimate: $15.00 × (1 + 2.3%) = $15.35
- Who sets it: the Commissioner of Labor and Industry (Virginia DOLI) calculates and publishes the rate. The General Assembly does not vote on it.
- Which index: national CPI-U (U.S. city average, all items) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Not a Virginia or regional index.
- Which change: DOLI has applied “increased during the most recent calendar year” as the December-to-December change. It used 3.4% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024. This forecast does the same.
- Never lower: if prices fall, the adjustment is zero and the rate holds.
- Rounding: the statute is silent. DOLI rounds to the nearest cent ($12.41 × 1.029 = $12.77), and so does this forecast, every year.
- Two-year lag: the rate is set by October 1, so the latest full year of data is the year before. The 2029 rate reflects 2027 prices, 2030 reflects 2028, and so on.
Calendar to the first indexed rate
- Jan 1, 2027Statutory step to $13.75.
- Jan–Dec 2027The price year that drives the 2029 increase.
- Jan 1, 2028Statutory step to $15.00, the base for indexing.
- Mid-Jan 2028BLS publishes December 2027 CPI. From then on the 2029 rate can be calculated exactly.
- By Oct 1, 2028DOLI announces the 2029 rate. In 2025 it announced in late July.
- Jan 1, 2029The first inflation-adjusted rate takes effect. The cycle repeats every year.
No 2027 CPI data exists yet. The base estimate uses the Philadelphia Fed survey’s 2027 forecast of 2.3% (Q4 to Q4), which gives about $15.35. The Low to High range is $15.27–$15.45. The first 2027 CPI figure comes out in mid-February 2027.
Forecast · 2029–2070
Forty-four years of the Virginia minimum wage
From 2029 the rate depends only on inflation. Pick a scenario or set your own CPI assumptions. Rates fixed by law do not change.
Set by law or DOLI
Forecast
Low to High scenario range
Year by year
Full schedule, 2026–2070
Values follow the scenario selected above. “Today’s dollars” deflates by the same CPI path, which shows that indexing keeps buying power roughly flat after 2028.
| Jan 1 | Basis | Hourly | Change | CPI year used | Per year (full-time) | Today’s dollars |
|---|
Media kit
Share the numbers
Ready-made images for posts and stories: today’s rate, the next increase, the 2029 estimate and the full year-by-year list. They regenerate whenever the data changes and always use the base estimate.
Method and sources
How the forecast is built and kept current
- Recurrence: Ratey = round(Ratey−1 × (1 + max(0, CPIy−2)), cents) for every year not yet set by law or by DOLI.
- CPI data: once both Decembers are published, the actual change is used and the year is marked “Calculated”. For a year in progress, the seasonally adjusted index so far is extended to December at the assumed rate.
- Base: Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q3 2026) median headline CPI, Q4 to Q4: 2026 3.6%, 2027 2.3%, 2028 2.3%. After that, 2.3% a year, the survey’s 10-year expectation.
- Low and High: the base near-term outlook minus 0.5 or plus 0.7 points, then 2.0% (about the Fed’s target) or 3.0% a year over the long run.
- Automatic updates: a scheduled GitHub Action pulls new CPI data each month after the BLS release. Each week (daily during the legislative session) it checks the Code of Virginia, General Assembly bills and DOLI announcements. Changes to law or assumptions come in as reviewed pull requests.
- Not modeled: future legislation, a higher federal minimum, tipped wages, and training or youth exemptions. Projections decades out depend entirely on the inflation assumption.
- Code of Virginia § 40.1-28.10 (Virginia LIS)
- HB 1, 2026 Session, Chapter 350 (Virginia LIS)
- Governor Spanberger signs bills to raise state minimum wage (Office of the Governor)
- Virginia minimum wage rate increasing effective January 1, 2026 (DOLI)
- CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items (BLS)
- Survey of Professional Forecasters, SPF Q3 2026 (Philadelphia Fed)